The second adjustment takes place only once the tournament is underway.
The Five Thirty Eight model gives a bonus to teams’ ratings as they win games, based on the score of each game and the quality of their opponent. 12 seed that waltzes through its play-in game and then crushes a No.
These probabilities are derived using logistic regression analysis, which lets us plug the current state of a game into a model to produce the probability that either team will win the game.
We calculate power ratings for the women’s tournament in much the same way as we do for the men’s.
However, because of the relative lack of data for women’s college basketball — a persistent problem when it comes to women’s sports — the process has a few differences: Once we have power ratings for every team, we need to turn them into a forecast — that is, the chance of every team reaching any round of the tournament.
When we forecast individual games, we apply a third and final adjustment to our ratings, for travel distance. In extreme cases (a team playing very near its campus or traveling across the country to play a game), the effect of travel can be tantamount to playing a home or road game, despite being on an ostensibly neutral court.
Are you not at your best when you fly in from LAX to take an 8 a.m. This final adjustment gives us a team’s travel-adjusted power rating, which is then used to calculate their chance of winning that game.